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Málaga CF 2–0 Real Racing Club de Santander

← Primera Division 2004-05 · Sun, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win47%2.00
Draw30%3.00
Real Racing Club de Santander win24%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.90
Under50%1.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFReal Racing Club de Santander
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days660.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.003.00
elo1480.061500.22
elo momentum (last 5)14.1021.34
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
league points45.0041.00
league rank15.0016.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.008.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.251.14
state index-0.200.00
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20