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Real Betis Balompié 3–2 Zaragoza

← Primera Division 2004-05 · Sat, May 21, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Betis Balompié win63%1.44
Draw23%4.00
Zaragoza win14%7.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.66
Under44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Betis BalompiéZaragoza
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days993.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1630.641555.28
elo momentum (last 5)6.261.39
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.62
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.40
league points58.0050.00
league rank5.0010.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win0.002.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg1.611.39
state index0.660.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.20