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Villarreal CF 4–0 Getafe CF

← Primera Division 2004-05 Β· Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Villarreal CF win64%1.40
Draw24%3.75
Getafe CF win13%7.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.80
Over47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricVillarreal CFGetafe CF
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days334.00273.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.05
congestion 21d4.003.00
elo1632.371564.86
elo momentum (last 5)-8.95-2.81
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.74
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
league points52.0042.00
league rank7.0015.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
rest days3.007.00
season ppg1.581.27
state index0.450.10
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.00