Numancia 1–0 Club Atlético de Madrid

← Primera Division 2004-05 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Club Atlético de Madrid win	40%	2.20
Numancia win	31%	2.87
Draw	28%	3.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Under	58%	1.61
Over	42%	2.25

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Numancia	Club Atlético de Madrid
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.10	0.10
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	—	2109.00
comeback rate (last 20)	0.05	0.00
congestion 21d	2.00	2.00
elo	1458.43	1603.38
elo momentum (last 5)	-16.87	26.35
form points (last 5)	2.00	10.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	-0.60	1.40
goals against avg (last 5)	1.60	0.40
goals for avg (last 5)	1.00	1.80
goals volatility (last 10)	0.74	1.34
h2 goals (last 10)	0.50	0.40
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.15	0.50
league points	20.00	46.00
league rank	20.00	8.00
matches since blank	0.00	1.00
matches since clean sheet	14.00	0.00
matches since win	6.00	0.00
rest days	6.00	6.00
season ppg	0.67	1.53
state index	-0.82	0.83
venue ppg (last 5)	0.40	0.80