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Mallorca 1–1 Real Sociedad de Fútbol

← Primera Division 2003-04 · Sun, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win40%2.25
Real Sociedad de Fútbol win32%2.80
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.80
Over47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaReal Sociedad de Fútbol
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2469.001739.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
elo1473.401548.75
elo momentum (last 5)-14.23-17.79
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
league points32.0035.00
league rank17.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.008.00
matches since win2.002.00
rest days7.007.96
season ppg1.071.17
state index-0.60-0.13
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80