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Club Atlético de Madrid 2–1 Real Betis Balompié

← Primera Division 2003-04 · Sat, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Club Atlético de Madrid win47%1.91
Draw28%3.25
Real Betis Balompié win25%3.60

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClub Atlético de MadridReal Betis Balompié
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1724.00566.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1557.261574.12
elo momentum (last 5)-12.05-6.81
form points (last 5)5.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
league points41.0038.00
league rank6.0010.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win2.004.00
rest days7.006.00
season ppg1.461.36
state index0.070.13
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60