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Deportivo Alavés 0–0 RC Celta de Vigo

← Primera Division 2002-03 · Sun, May 4, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Celta de Vigo win41%2.25
Deportivo Alavés win31%3.00
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.66
Over44%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDeportivo AlavésRC Celta de Vigo
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—276.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1439.021606.37
elo momentum (last 5)-30.1318.68
form points (last 5)1.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
league points30.0052.00
league rank19.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win9.001.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.971.68
state index-1.230.80
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.60