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Athletic Club 3–1 Real Betis Balompié

← Primera Division 2002-03 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Athletic Club win42%2.20
Draw29%3.10
Real Betis Balompié win28%3.30

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.90
Under50%1.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAthletic ClubReal Betis Balompié
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days664.00237.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1495.251551.63
elo momentum (last 5)22.066.53
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.05
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
league points38.0042.00
league rank11.006.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
rest days6.006.00
season ppg1.271.40
state index0.250.05
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.20