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RC Deportivo La Coruña 3–1 Sevilla FC

← Primera Division 2002-03 · Sun, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Deportivo La Coruña win59%1.50
Draw26%3.40
Sevilla FC win15%6.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.83
Under50%1.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Deportivo La CoruñaSevilla FC
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days—961.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1674.311581.26
elo momentum (last 5)18.9012.91
form points (last 5)12.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.691.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
league points57.0042.00
league rank3.006.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days8.008.00
season ppg1.971.45
state index1.410.70
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40