⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

CA Osasuna 0–1 Málaga CF

← Primera Division 2002-03 · Sun, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CA Osasuna win42%2.10
Draw30%3.00
Málaga CF win28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.72
Over46%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCA OsasunaMálaga CF
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days279.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1473.631526.37
elo momentum (last 5)-16.27-5.76
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
league points30.0032.00
league rank17.0015.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win5.002.00
rest days13.9613.96
season ppg1.111.19
state index-0.54-0.11
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20