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Mallorca 2–1 RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

← Primera Division 2001-02 Β· Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mallorca win49%1.83
Draw27%3.30
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win24%3.75

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricMallorcaRCD Espanyol de Barcelona
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1734.001369.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1508.881495.74
elo momentum (last 5)-13.071.48
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.660.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
league points34.0041.00
league rank15.0010.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
rest days6.966.96
season ppg1.101.32
state index-0.29-0.16
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.60