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Real Sociedad de Fútbol 4–0 Málaga CF

← Primera Division 2000-01 · Sun, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Real Sociedad de Fútbol win42%2.10
Málaga CF win30%3.00
Draw28%3.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReal Sociedad de FútbolMálaga CF
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days689.00—
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1462.741522.10
elo momentum (last 5)16.4423.99
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.140.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
league points36.0050.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank8.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg1.061.47
state index0.060.63
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.20