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Málaga CF 1–1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

← Primera Division 2000-01 · Sun, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF win52%1.72
Draw28%3.20
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win21%4.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMálaga CFRayo Vallecano de Madrid
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1498.101460.66
elo momentum (last 5)16.90-46.09
form points (last 5)10.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.060.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.25
league points41.0037.00
league rank9.0011.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.0011.00
matches since win0.001.00
rest days7.008.00
season ppg1.411.28
state index0.22-0.95
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80