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Celtic 2–0 Aberdeen

← Scottish Premiership 2004-05 Β· Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J Underhill

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Celtic win76%1.20
Draw16%6.00
Aberdeen win9%13.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots5
8On target3
8Corners5
13Fouls13
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCelticAberdeen
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)1.201.80
coach days1772.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.22
corner diff avg (last 5)5.40-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)9.202.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.270.24
dominance (last 5)0.580.40
elo1846.481507.99
elo momentum (last 5)-38.78-2.72
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.640.71
h2 goals (last 10)1.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.35
league points86.0055.00
league rank2.004.00
matches since blank4.0011.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg2.461.57
shot diff avg (last 5)1.20-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.806.40
state index1.09-0.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40