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Dundee 1–2 Dundee United

← Scottish Premiership 2004-05 Β· Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D McDonald

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dundee win39%2.30
Dundee United win33%2.75
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots9
6On target4
7Corners7
7Fouls11
0Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricDundeeDundee United
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.210.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.00-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.043.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.12
dominance (last 5)0.350.42
elo1411.781425.70
elo momentum (last 5)8.7723.31
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
league points31.0029.00
league rank9.0010.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win2.001.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.910.85
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.20-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)5.4010.60
state index-0.47-0.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20