⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Dunfermline 0–0 Inverness C

← Scottish Premiership 2004-05 · Sat, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: �C Murray

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dunfermline win40%2.37
Inverness C win33%2.75
Draw27%3.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots6
4On target3
5Corners6
12Fouls15
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDunfermlineInverness C
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
cards avg (last 5)1.001.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.800.60
corners against avg (last 5)7.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.662.55
defensive leak (last 5)0.280.15
dominance (last 5)0.420.64
elo1417.101531.94
elo momentum (last 5)-29.836.78
form points (last 5)1.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.671.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
league points27.0042.00
league rank11.007.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win8.000.00
rest days6.007.00
season ppg0.821.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.206.20
shots for avg (last 5)7.4013.20
state index-1.440.37
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.20