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Livingston 1–1 Motherwell

← Scottish Premiership 2004-05 Β· Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D MacDonald

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Motherwell win37%2.50
Livingston win35%2.62
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
4Shots11
3On target11
3Corners7
11Fouls16
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLivingstonMotherwell
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)1.600.80
coach daysβ€”3907.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.12
corner diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)2.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.561.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.11
dominance (last 5)0.490.65
elo1380.311499.86
elo momentum (last 5)4.5319.85
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
league points22.0038.00
league rank12.006.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg0.791.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.405.40
shots for avg (last 5)6.0011.40
state index-0.750.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.20