⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Kilmarnock 3–0 Dundee United

← Scottish Premiership 2004-05 Β· Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J Underhill

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kilmarnock win48%1.90
Draw27%3.40
Dundee United win25%3.75

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots6
7On target3
6Corners5
10Fouls13
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKilmarnockDundee United
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.14
dominance (last 5)0.340.49
elo1429.591416.25
elo momentum (last 5)-28.27-7.32
form points (last 5)3.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
league points32.0022.00
league rank7.0012.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.100.79
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.20-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)6.809.40
state index-0.99-0.61
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80