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Kilmarnock 2–1 Dunfermline

← Scottish Premiership 2004-05 Β· Sat, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K Clark

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kilmarnock win48%1.90
Draw27%3.40
Dunfermline win25%3.75

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
14Shots12
6On target6
7Corners3
14Fouls16
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKilmarnockDunfermline
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
cards avg (last 5)2.001.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.807.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.063.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.380.51
elo1450.041453.11
elo momentum (last 5)12.482.09
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.151.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
league points29.0024.00
league rank7.0010.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win3.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.160.96
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.002.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.4011.80
state index-0.43-0.40
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.00