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Hibernian 3–0 Kilmarnock

← Scottish Premiership 2004-05 Β· Sat, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: H Dallas

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hibernian win53%1.70
Draw26%3.50
Kilmarnock win20%4.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots9
8On target6
2Corners7
15Fouls19
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHibernianKilmarnock
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
cards avg (last 5)1.001.60
coach days266.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.206.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.852.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.11
dominance (last 5)0.580.48
elo1547.191470.98
elo momentum (last 5)44.2327.25
form points (last 5)13.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.290.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.35
league points40.0029.00
league rank3.007.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.821.32
shot diff avg (last 5)4.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.2010.00
state index0.930.04
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60