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Rangers 3–0 Dunfermline

← Scottish Premiership 2004-05 Β· Sat, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C Richmond

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rangers win79%1.14
Draw13%7.00
Dunfermline win7%15.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots9
7On target6
7Corners4
20Fouls12
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRangersDunfermline
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
cards avg (last 5)1.200.60
coach days1141.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.07
corner diff avg (last 5)4.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)8.205.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.081.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.14
dominance (last 5)0.650.48
elo1801.971461.82
elo momentum (last 5)-5.11-11.36
form points (last 5)11.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.34
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.30
league points50.0020.00
league rank2.008.00
matches since blank16.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days14.0014.00
season ppg2.380.95
shot diff avg (last 5)6.40-1.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.608.40
state index1.73-0.45
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.60