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Celtic 1–2 Dunfermline

← Scottish Premiership 2003-04 Β· Sun, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D McDonald

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Celtic win75%1.22
Draw16%6.00
Dunfermline win9%11.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots7
7On target4
10Corners3
7Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricCelticDunfermline
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
cards avg (last 5)0.601.00
coach days1401.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.21
corner diff avg (last 5)0.600.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.132.04
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.550.53
elo1908.221503.72
elo momentum (last 5)-24.505.72
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.700.30
league points91.0050.00
league rank1.004.00
matches since blank20.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
rest days7.008.00
season ppg2.681.47
shot diff avg (last 5)1.601.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.207.60
state index1.430.04
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80