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Hibernian 0–4 Celtic

← Scottish Premiership 2003-04 Β· Sun, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: D McDonald

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Celtic win70%1.30
Draw20%5.00
Hibernian win10%10.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
11Shots10
7On target9
11Corners3
9Fouls12
4Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHibernianCeltic
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)1.401.00
coach days2240.001359.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.28
corner diff avg (last 5)0.602.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.39
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.17
dominance (last 5)0.510.65
elo1446.881929.70
elo momentum (last 5)-13.27-3.78
form points (last 5)3.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.75
league points28.0080.00
league rank9.001.00
matches since blank0.0020.00
matches since clean sheet3.008.00
matches since win5.000.00
rest days22.004.00
season ppg1.082.86
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.605.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.6012.00
state index-0.602.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.003.00