⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Hearts 0–1 Celtic

← Scottish Premiership 2003-04 Β· Sun, Jan 18, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K Clark

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Celtic win72%1.28
Draw19%5.00
Hearts win9%10.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots9
5On target6
2Corners6
22Fouls17
5Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeartsCeltic
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
coach daysβ€”1296.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.26
corner diff avg (last 5)2.402.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.607.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.373.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.05
dominance (last 5)0.560.66
elo1587.311922.16
elo momentum (last 5)-5.6118.56
form points (last 5)7.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.002.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.203.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.161.40
h2 goals (last 10)1.002.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.70
league points33.0055.00
league rank3.001.00
matches since blank1.0018.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days12.0015.00
season ppg1.742.89
shot diff avg (last 5)2.006.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.4012.60
state index0.592.79
venue ppg (last 5)2.203.00