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Motherwell 1–2 Dundee

← Scottish Premiership 2002-03 Β· Sat, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J Underhill

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dundee win40%2.25
Motherwell win33%2.75
Draw27%3.40

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
14Shots10
5On target5
7Corners3
12Fouls14
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricMotherwellDundee
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
cards avg (last 5)2.600.40
coach days3207.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)7.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.006.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.833.80
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.420.52
elo1380.951486.79
elo momentum (last 5)-16.9422.60
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
league points24.0039.00
league rank12.006.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet10.003.00
matches since win4.004.00
rest days7.006.00
season ppg0.771.22
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.001.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.6011.20
state index-0.910.11
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60