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Livingston 1–2 Aberdeen

← Scottish Premiership 2002-03 Β· Sat, Apr 5, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: H Dallas

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Livingston win40%2.20
Aberdeen win32%2.80
Draw27%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
18Shots15
12On target9
4Corners8
14Fouls6
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLivingstonAberdeen
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.803.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.703.07
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.17
dominance (last 5)0.490.54
elo1473.071459.67
elo momentum (last 5)8.79-1.80
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.20
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
league points31.0031.00
league rank9.008.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
rest days20.9620.96
season ppg1.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.607.60
state index-0.00-0.12
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20