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Partick 1–3 Dundee

← Scottish Premiership 2002-03 Β· Sat, Mar 1, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K Clark

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Partick win39%2.40
Dundee win33%2.75
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
12Shots13
8On target10
2Corners11
12Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPartickDundee
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
cards avg (last 5)1.800.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.26
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)4.793.63
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.08
dominance (last 5)0.410.41
elo1446.591464.18
elo momentum (last 5)-15.6017.04
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
league points27.0032.00
league rank9.007.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days6.004.00
season ppg0.961.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.206.80
state index-0.64-0.12
venue ppg (last 5)0.800.80