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Kilmarnock 1–0 Motherwell

← Scottish Premiership 2002-03 Β· Wed, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J Rowbotham

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kilmarnock win51%1.83
Draw27%3.40
Motherwell win22%4.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots8
5On target2
6Corners3
10Fouls10
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricKilmarnockMotherwell
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)2.003.60
coach daysβ€”3134.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.270.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-6.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)10.005.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.781.40
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.09
dominance (last 5)0.320.41
elo1493.111400.98
elo momentum (last 5)30.1819.61
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.71
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
league points33.0018.00
league rank6.0011.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
rest days27.0027.00
season ppg1.380.78
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.80-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)5.809.20
state index0.10-0.48
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40