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Partick 1–3 Livingston

← Scottish Premiership 2002-03 Β· Tue, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: I Fyfe

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Partick win41%2.25
Livingston win31%3.00
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots11
6On target7
8Corners7
10Fouls14
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPartickLivingston
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
cards avg (last 5)2.801.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.804.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.602.40
corners for avg (last 5)2.806.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.171.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.14
dominance (last 5)0.380.59
elo1462.161468.22
elo momentum (last 5)-12.56-3.52
form points (last 5)3.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.15
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
league points24.0023.00
league rank9.0010.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win5.001.00
rest days26.0026.00
season ppg1.000.96
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.804.40
shots for avg (last 5)9.0011.00
state index-0.40-0.11
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20