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Dundee 1–2 Hearts

← Scottish Premiership 2002-03 Β· Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K Clark

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hearts win37%2.50
Dundee win36%2.50
Draw28%3.30

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
5Shots12
1On target10
2Corners5
18Fouls19
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricDundeeHearts
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.163.00
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.17
dominance (last 5)0.450.53
elo1447.141512.51
elo momentum (last 5)-16.243.45
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
league points25.0033.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet11.001.00
matches since win4.001.00
rest days3.003.00
season ppg1.141.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.602.20
shots for avg (last 5)8.2014.40
state index-0.68-0.04
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20