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Aberdeen 0–0 Livingston

← Scottish Premiership 2002-03 Β· Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: K Clark

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Aberdeen win46%2.00
Draw28%3.25
Livingston win27%3.50

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots2
4On target1
3Corners6
10Fouls19
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAberdeenLivingston
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.722.11
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.24
dominance (last 5)0.470.55
elo1468.461460.66
elo momentum (last 5)-42.34-28.02
form points (last 5)2.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.62
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
league points19.0016.00
league rank9.0010.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.006.00
matches since win10.006.00
rest days6.007.00
season ppg0.950.80
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.401.60
shots for avg (last 5)7.2012.20
state index-1.20-0.84
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.20