← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 37% | 2.60 |
| Cheltenham win | 35% | 2.77 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Cheltenham +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Joe Nuttall · Cheltenham |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Kane Hemmings · Stevenage |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jordan Roberts · Stevenage |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jordan Thomas · Cheltenham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Matty Taylor · Cheltenham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ben Thompson · Stevenage |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jack Shepherd · Cheltenham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Nick Freeman · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 10 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 26.00 | 696.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1462.22 | 1372.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.14 | -4.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 50.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 68.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.40 | 62.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.69 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.51 | 0.98 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -1.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |