← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Joyce
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 39% | 2.45 |
| Cambridge win | 32% | 3.12 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Port Vale −0.25 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | James Gibbons · Cambridge |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jensen Weir · Port Vale |
| 37' | 🟨 | Liam Bennett · Cambridge |
| 39' | 🟨 | Gassan Ahadme · Cambridge |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nathan Smith · Port Vale |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jubril Okedina · Cambridge |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Cambridge |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days | 86.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1304.71 | 1373.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.56 | -16.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -1.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| league points | 40.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 60.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | -1.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| state index | -1.48 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |