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Peterboro 3–3 Bolton

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Madley

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bolton win46%2.20
Peterboro win31%3.29
Draw24%4.00

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bolton +0.2554%1.78
Peterboro +0.2546%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over67%1.43
Under33%2.88

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Kyle Dempsey · Bolton
8'⚽ (pen)Dion Charles · Bolton
50'⚽Malik Mothersille · Peterboro
58'🟨Josh Dacres-Cogley · Bolton
61'🟨George Thomason · Bolton
67'⚽Joel Randall · Peterboro
73'🟨Eoin Toal · Bolton
79'⚽Malik Mothersille · Peterboro
82'⚽Cameron Jerome · Bolton
87'🟨Joel Randall · Peterboro

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
15Shots11
6On target4
10Corners4
17Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPeterboroBolton
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.710.56
cards avg (last 5)0.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWeston Homes Stadium
coach days482.001396.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.14
corner diff avg (last 5)3.005.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.808.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.493.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.11
dominance (last 5)0.560.64
elo1545.701593.82
elo momentum (last 5)-18.0114.75
eye test v10.531.38
eye trend v1-0.25-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)61.9062.80
form points (last 5)9.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.73
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.630.76
league points83.0086.00
league rank4.003.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.2078.00
possession avg (last 5)67.8064.00
rest days3.706.90
scorer concentration0.180.15
season ppg1.841.91
shot diff avg (last 5)1.009.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.2019.60
skill v11.970.98
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.507.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.678.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.007.40
state index-0.010.58
sterile dominance v11.500.30
threat rate (last 10)0.220.29
threat rate (last 3)0.180.35
threat rate (last 5)0.220.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20