← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Gill
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 50% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 |
| Portsmouth win | 24% | 4.05 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Portsmouth −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Ryley Towler · Portsmouth |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ben House · Lincoln |
| 39' | 🟨 | Myles Peart-Harris · Portsmouth |
| 42' | 🟨 | Joe Taylor · Lincoln |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tom Lowery · Portsmouth |
| 70' | 🟨 | Owen Moxon · Portsmouth |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jack Sparkes · Portsmouth |
| 81' | ⚽ | Myles Peart-Harris · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Erhahon · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Saydee · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kusini Yengi |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paddy Lane · Portsmouth |
| coach days | 178.00 | 482.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1562.51 | 1617.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.58 | -6.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.70 |
| league points | 74.00 | 94.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.74 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.28 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |