← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Mather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 40% | 2.38 |
| Burton win | 33% | 2.91 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.64 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.69 |
| Under | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Carl Johnston · Fleetwood Town |
| 23' | 🟨 | Mason Bennett · Burton |
| 25' | 🟨 | Mark Helm · Burton |
| 31' | ⚽ | Phoenix Patterson · Fleetwood Town |
| 76' | ⚽ | Tom Lonergan · Fleetwood Town |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ryan Sweeney · Burton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Dylan Scott · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| coach days | 148.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1382.51 | 1360.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.52 | -10.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.63 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 40.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 52.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.02 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.88 | -3.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.44 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.28 | -1.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |