← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 27, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Reeves
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 57% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
| Exeter win | 20% | 5.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Exeter +0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Mark Harris · Oxford |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Will Aimson · Exeter |
| 52' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Exeter |
| 84' | 🟨 | Finley Stevens · Oxford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jamie Cumming · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luke Harris · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 574.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1465.45 | 1512.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.30 | 30.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.76 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 61.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 6.94 | 7.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 10.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| state index | 0.31 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |