← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 46% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Cheltenham win | 25% | 3.88 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham +0.5 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Lincoln +0.5 | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Liam Sercombe · Cheltenham |
| 40' | ⚽ | Joe Taylor · Lincoln |
| 52' | ⚽ | Freddie Draper · Lincoln |
| 53' | 🟨 | Elliot Bonds · Cheltenham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Curtis Davies · Cheltenham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Josh Harrop · Cheltenham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sean Long · Cheltenham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cheltenham | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Completely-Suzuki Stadium |
| coach days | 689.00 | 171.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1357.01 | 1556.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.46 | 10.02 |
| eye test v1 | -1.29 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| league points | 41.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.74 | -1.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.13 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |