← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton win | 70% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.24 |
| Port Vale win | 11% | 8.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −1.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Bolton −1.5 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 70' | 🟨 | Edmond-Paris Maghoma · Bolton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dion Charles · Bolton |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ben Garrity · Port Vale |
| 72' | ⚽ | Aaron Collins · Bolton |
| 79' | 🟨 | Eoin Toal · Bolton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cameron Jerome · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bolton | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Toughsheet Community Stadium |
| coach days | 1389.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1590.14 | 1308.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.63 | -28.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -0.64 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| league points | 83.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.46 | -1.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |