← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 20, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Ricardo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton win | 38% | 2.55 |
| Exeter win | 33% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Northampton +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Exeter +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Luke Harris · Exeter |
| 44' | 🟥 | Ryan Woods · Exeter |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jon Guthrie · Northampton |
| 83' | ⚽ | Will Aimson · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Northampton | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Sixfields Stadium |
| coach days | 1174.00 | 567.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1436.52 | 1454.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.58 | 35.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| league points | 59.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |