← EFL League One 2023-24 · Fri, Apr 19, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 53% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 |
| Stevenage win | 21% | 4.56 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Oxford −0.75 | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Terence Vancooten · Stevenage |
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Sam Long · Stevenage |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 71' | 🟨 | Nesta Guinness-Walker · Stevenage |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kane Smith · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 2 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| coach days | 170.00 | 18.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1515.98 | 1458.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.49 | -10.94 |
| eye test v1 | 1.42 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 73.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.01 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.76 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |