← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 62% | 1.56 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.21 |
| Burton win | 15% | 7.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Stevenage −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Adedeji Oshilaja · Burton |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mark Helm · Burton |
| 61' | 🟥 | Dan Butler · Stevenage |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mark Helm · Burton |
| 71' | 🟨 | Thomas Hamer · Burton |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ben Thompson · Stevenage |
| 76' | ⚽ | Thomas Hamer · Burton |
| 88' | ⚽ | Kane Hemmings · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kane Hemmings · Stevenage |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stevenage | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Lamex Stadium |
| coach days | 12.00 | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1473.91 | 1345.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.13 | -41.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | -0.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 67.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 62.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.62 | -1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.00 | -1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | -1.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |