← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Edwards
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 52% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
| Exeter win | 23% | 4.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Port Vale −0.5 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Exeter −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.91 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Millenic Alli · Exeter |
| 28' | 🟨 | Thomas Sang · Port Vale |
| 31' | ⚽ | Ethan Chislett · Port Vale |
| 35' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 40' | ⚽ | Baylee Dipepa · Port Vale |
| 41' | 🟨 | Ben Purrington · Exeter |
| 47' | 🟨 | Luke Harris · Exeter |
| 57' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Exeter |
| 67' | ⚽ | Zak Jules · Exeter |
| 79' | ⚽ | Luke Harris · Exeter |
| 89' | ⚽ | Millenic Alli · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Port Vale | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vale Park |
| coach days | 72.00 | 560.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1327.83 | 1441.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.94 | 30.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 40.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |