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Lincoln 1–2 Wigan

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lincoln win58%1.67
Draw25%4.00
Wigan win18%5.66

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lincoln −0.7552%1.86
Wigan −0.7548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Jonny Smith · Wigan
27'🟨Charlie Hughes · Wigan
40'⚽Daniel Mandroiu · Lincoln
41'🟨Matthew Smith · Wigan
43'🟨Paudie O’Connor · Lincoln
50'🟨Ben House · Lincoln
51'🟨Reeco Hackett-Fairchild · Lincoln
66'🟨Alex Mitchell · Lincoln
71'🟨Martial Godo · Wigan
90'🟨Jovon Makama · Lincoln
90'🟨Sean Roughan · Lincoln
90'🟨Josh Magennis · Wigan
90'🟨Steven Sessegnon · Wigan
90'⚽Charlie Hughes · Wigan

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots12
3On target5
2Corners6
12Fouls14
6Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLincolnWigan
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.540.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.640.71
cards avg (last 5)1.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLNER Stadium
coach days164.00468.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.270.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.793.13
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.11
dominance (last 5)0.400.43
elo1559.391460.47
elo momentum (last 5)33.16-15.28
eye test v10.57-0.70
eye trend v1-0.450.16
first sub minute (last 10)57.9053.20
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)3.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)2.060.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.860.76
league points68.0061.00
league rank7.0011.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2080.20
possession avg (last 5)43.0058.00
rest days7.003.80
scorer concentration0.130.18
season ppg1.621.42
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.40-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.2010.40
skill v1-1.260.79
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.802.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.802.80
squad age—27.40
state index0.84-0.61
sterile dominance v1-0.821.10
threat rate (last 10)0.260.17
threat rate (last 3)0.160.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80