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Barnsley 2–2 Reading

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barnsley win54%1.74
Draw24%4.17
Reading win22%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reading −0.7551%1.93
Barnsley −0.7549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.61
Under40%2.39

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Sam Smith · Reading
29'⚽Adam Phillips · Barnsley
64'🟨Adam Phillips · Barnsley
81'⚽Lewis Wing · Reading
83'⚽Fabio Jaló · Barnsley

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
23Shots22
9On target5
5Corners7
8Fouls9
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBarnsleyReading
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.660.55
cards avg (last 5)1.800.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOakwell
coach days12.00317.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.150.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.092.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.11
dominance (last 5)0.560.60
elo1539.341478.70
elo momentum (last 5)-43.7623.85
eye test v1-0.57-0.14
eye trend v1-0.46-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)59.8057.70
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.340.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.660.66
league points74.0055.00
league rank5.0015.00
matches since blank3.0017.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2075.40
possession avg (last 5)63.0054.20
rest days3.803.80
scorer concentration0.250.19
season ppg1.761.28
shot diff avg (last 5)2.603.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.4015.00
skill v10.570.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.305.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
squad age—31.41
state index-0.410.24
sterile dominance v10.720.23
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.200.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20