← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Apr 9, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: W Finnie
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Reading win | 40% | 2.38 |
| Bristol Rvs win | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Bristol Rvs +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Reading +0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.