← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 48% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.37 |
| Exeter win | 23% | 4.13 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Exeter +0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Stevenage +0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.59 |
| Over | 39% | 2.44 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Dan Butler · Stevenage |
| 22' | 🟨 | Tom Carroll · Exeter |
| 38' | ⚽ | Reece Cole · Exeter |
| 47' | 🟨 | Louis Thompson · Stevenage |
| 69' | 🟨 | Caleb Watts · Exeter |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kane Hemmings · Stevenage |
| 86' | 🟨 | Nathan Thompson · Stevenage |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pierce Sweeney · Exeter |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Exeter | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | St James Park |
| coach days | 553.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1429.25 | 1472.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.46 | -22.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.83 |
| league points | 51.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 64.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |