← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley win | 38% | 45% | 2.55 | value: +15% |
| Charlton win | 35% | 32% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Barnsley +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Charlton +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Charlton |
| 23' | 🟨 | Terell Thomas · Charlton |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
| 37' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Barnsley |
| 40' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Charlton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Karoy Anderson · Charlton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Michael Hector · Charlton |
| 77' | 🟨 | John McAtee · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 | George Dobson · Charlton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luca Connell · Barnsley |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The Valley |
| Adam Phillips · Barnsley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 65.00 | 5.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1455.41 | 1561.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.37 | -44.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.69 |
| league points | 47.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 25.72 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |