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Charlton 2–1 Barnsley

← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Speedie

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barnsley win38%2.55
Charlton win35%2.76
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Barnsley +052%1.86
Charlton +048%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over57%1.68
Under43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Alfie May · Charlton
23'🟨Terell Thomas · Charlton
28'⚽ (pen)Adam Phillips · Barnsley
37'🟨Josh Earl · Barnsley
40'⚽Alfie May · Charlton
65'🟨Karoy Anderson · Charlton
77'🟨Michael Hector · Charlton
77'🟨John McAtee · Barnsley
90'🟨George Dobson · Charlton
90'🟨Luca Connell · Barnsley
90'🟨Adam Phillips · Barnsley

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
15Shots13
4On target3
7Corners5
13Fouls7
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCharltonBarnsley
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
box share (last 5)0.650.65
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueThe Valley
coach days65.005.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.15
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.601.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.263.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.19
dominance (last 5)0.540.63
elo1455.411561.43
elo momentum (last 5)19.37-44.72
eye test v10.430.03
eye trend v10.02-0.50
first sub minute (last 10)65.5058.60
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.181.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.780.69
league points47.0074.00
league rank17.004.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.4076.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0063.60
rest days5.005.00
scorer concentration0.330.25
season ppg1.151.85
shot diff avg (last 5)1.607.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6017.20
skill v1-1.160.83
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.00
state index-0.02-0.03
sterile dominance v1-0.850.48
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.60