← EFL League One 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 49% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.67 |
| Burton win | 25% | 3.87 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burton +0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Oxford +0.5 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Mark Harris · Oxford |
| 50' | 🟨 | Joe Powell · Burton |
| 57' | ⚽ | Mark Harris · Oxford |
| 62' | ⚽ | Josh Murphy · Oxford |
| 69' | ⚽ | James Henry · Oxford |
| 83' | 🟨 | John Brayford · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| coach days | 96.00 | 157.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1360.92 | 1492.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.09 | 13.70 |
| eye test v1 | -1.05 | 0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 40.00 | 67.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.98 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.15 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.20 |
| state index | -1.32 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.89 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |