← EFL League One 2023-24 · Tue, Apr 2, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 42% | 2.33 |
| Derby win | 29% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.30 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Derby −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.72 |
| Over | 44% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Paddy Lane · Portsmouth |
| 23' | ⚽ | Joe Ward · Derby |
| 27' | ⚽ | Abu Kamara · Portsmouth |
| 35' | ⚽ | Joe Ward · Derby |
| 43' | 🟨 | James Collins · Derby |
| 72' | 🟨 | Connor Ogilvie · Portsmouth |
| 77' | ⚽ | Owen Moxon · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 457.00 | 579.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1624.41 | 1607.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.12 | 17.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 86.00 | 81.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 4.17 | 4.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.15 | 1.98 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.96 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 237.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |